Baron Tropical Weather Discussion

Issued:  August 27th, 2011          

Time:    8:00pm (CDT)

Storm:   Hurricane Irene

Storm Discussion:

As of 8pm, Hurricane Irene centered over about 100 MI SSW of Ocean City, MD and is steadily moving North-Northeast at about 16 mph.  NHC is reporting that Irene is still a Category 1 storm with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph, however, a NOAA C-Man station at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay is reporting a maximum of 52 mph and gust of 57 mph.

Forecast track for the next 48 hours from NHC continues to waver little as does the BAMS.   The NHC track skirts the coastline with Irene to make landfall again somewhere near Jones Beach, New York on Sunday morning.  BAMS take a more land-based route over the Delmar peninsula, through mainland New Jersey, to New York City with the same timing.  Currently, NHC has Irene remaining as a Category 1 storm at 2^nd landfall, but minimally, and likely with only a tight core of hurricane force winds.  Current water vapor pretty much supports this and showing a large area of the dry air to the west and south of the storm which is being entrained into the southeast side currently.  Hurricane Force winds extend out up to 85 miles with tropical storm force winds being the larger factor as that wind field extends outward up to 290 miles.  Tropical storm force winds will likely be into the New York City area by late this evening.  With Irene’s relatively slow forward speed, heavy flooding rains will be a factor from New England into the Middle Atlantic states. 

Another factor with Irene’s slow movement is that for the next 12-24 hours areas from the Middle Atlantic into the western end of the Long Island sound will be the favored quadrant for sustained, surging water flow.  High tide is already above normal this weekend and storm surge can as much as 4 to 8 feet above ground level in the hurricane warning area North from Virginia to Cape Cod.  The mouth of Chesapeake Bay already has a storm surge of about 4 ft. 

Hurricane Irene’s winds increase drastically with height.  As Irene goes past the Delmar peninsula and approaches larger metropolitan areas, high-rise buildings will experience considerably stronger wind speeds than those at the surface.

As Irene moves into central New England early Sunday afternoon she will quickly diminish to a tropical storm then become absorbed into the westerlys by across eastern Quebec late Monday afternoon.

Baron Forecast Team

Curtis Brideau

Baron Tropical Weather Discussion

Issued:  August 27th, 2011          

Time:    3:00pm (CDT)

Storm:   Hurricane Irene

Storm Discussion:

As of 3pm, Hurricane Irene centered over the northeastern end of the Albemarle Sound of North Carolina and is steadily moving North-Northeast at about 10-12 mph.  NHC is reporting that Irene is down to a Category 1 storm with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, however, a significant number of Buoys, C-Man stations and METARS are reporting a maximum of 65 mph.

Irene came ashore about 7am over Beaufort, NC as a Category 2 storm.  However, the highest gust report was 115 mph by the Cedar Island Ferry Terminal. Maximum report sustained winds were reported between 72 and 85 mph at stations across south-central North Carolina.

Irene should be exiting back into the Atlantic somewhere along the Virginia/North Carolina state line by 7pm (EDT). This is base on a quick extrapolation of movement and is in line with the BAMS.  NHCs track and movement also looks good but has Irene’s position by 7pm (per last forecast) was to be near the southern tip of the DelMarVa peninsula.

Forecast track for the next 48 hours from NHC continues waver little as does the BAMS.  With Irene still being guided by the western Atlantic ridge to the southeast and the trough across eastern Canada into the central Appalachians.  Irene should make landfall again somewhere near Jones Beach, New York in the late morning Sunday.  Currently NHC has Irene remaining as a Category 1 storm at 2^nd landfall but minimally and likely with only a tight core of hurricane force winds.  Current water vapor pretty much supports this and showing a large area of the dry air to the west and south of the storm which is being entrained into the southeast side currently.  Tropical storm force winds is the larger factor as that wind field extends outward up to 200 miles.  Tropical storm force winds have already shifted into the Cape May area of New Jersey and will likely be into the New York City area by late this evening.  The rain shield associated with Irene is also large with forward bands already moving across southern New England.  With Irene’s relatively slow forward speed, heavy flooding rains will be a factor from New England into the Middle Atlantic states.  Another factor with Irene’s slow movement is that for the next 12-24 hours areas from the Middle Atlantic into the western end of the Long Island sound will be the favored quadrant for sustained, surging water flow. 

As Irene moves into central New England early Sunday afternoon she will quickly diminish to a tropical storm then become absorbed into the westerlys by across eastern Quebec late Monday afternoon.

Baron Forecast Team

Brett Campbell