Issued: August 27th, 2011
Time: 3:00pm (CDT)
Storm: Hurricane Irene
Storm Discussion:
As of 3pm, Hurricane Irene centered over the northeastern end of the Albemarle Sound of North Carolina and is steadily moving North-Northeast at about 10-12 mph. NHC is reporting that Irene is down to a Category 1 storm with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, however, a significant number of Buoys, C-Man stations and METARS are reporting a maximum of 65 mph.
Irene came ashore about 7am over Beaufort, NC as a Category 2 storm. However, the highest gust report was 115 mph by the Cedar Island Ferry Terminal. Maximum report sustained winds were reported between 72 and 85 mph at stations across south-central North Carolina.
Irene should be exiting back into the Atlantic somewhere along the Virginia/North Carolina state line by 7pm (EDT). This is base on a quick extrapolation of movement and is in line with the BAMS. NHCs track and movement also looks good but has Irene’s position by 7pm (per last forecast) was to be near the southern tip of the DelMarVa peninsula.
Forecast track for the next 48 hours from NHC continues waver little as does the BAMS. With Irene still being guided by the western Atlantic ridge to the southeast and the trough across eastern Canada into the central Appalachians. Irene should make landfall again somewhere near Jones Beach, New York in the late morning Sunday. Currently NHC has Irene remaining as a Category 1 storm at 2nd landfall but minimally and likely with only a tight core of hurricane force winds. Current water vapor pretty much supports this and showing a large area of the dry air to the west and south of the storm which is being entrained into the southeast side currently. Tropical storm force winds is the larger factor as that wind field extends outward up to 200 miles. Tropical storm force winds have already shifted into the Cape May area of New Jersey and will likely be into the New York City area by late this evening. The rain shield associated with Irene is also large with forward bands already moving across southern New England. With Irene’s relatively slow forward speed, heavy flooding rains will be a factor from New England into the Middle Atlantic states. Another factor with Irene’s slow movement is that for the next 12-24 hours areas from the Middle Atlantic into the western end of the Long Island sound will be the favored quadrant for sustained, surging water flow.
As Irene moves into central New England early Sunday afternoon she will quickly diminish to a tropical storm then become absorbed into the westerlys by across eastern Quebec late Monday afternoon.
Baron Forecast Team
Brett Campbell
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