Baron Tropical Weather Discussion

Issued:  August 27th, 2011          

Time:    8:00pm (CDT)

Storm:   Hurricane Irene

Storm Discussion:

As of 8pm, Hurricane Irene centered over about 100 MI SSW of Ocean City, MD and is steadily moving North-Northeast at about 16 mph.  NHC is reporting that Irene is still a Category 1 storm with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph, however, a NOAA C-Man station at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay is reporting a maximum of 52 mph and gust of 57 mph.

Forecast track for the next 48 hours from NHC continues to waver little as does the BAMS.   The NHC track skirts the coastline with Irene to make landfall again somewhere near Jones Beach, New York on Sunday morning.  BAMS take a more land-based route over the Delmar peninsula, through mainland New Jersey, to New York City with the same timing.  Currently, NHC has Irene remaining as a Category 1 storm at 2^nd landfall, but minimally, and likely with only a tight core of hurricane force winds.  Current water vapor pretty much supports this and showing a large area of the dry air to the west and south of the storm which is being entrained into the southeast side currently.  Hurricane Force winds extend out up to 85 miles with tropical storm force winds being the larger factor as that wind field extends outward up to 290 miles.  Tropical storm force winds will likely be into the New York City area by late this evening.  With Irene’s relatively slow forward speed, heavy flooding rains will be a factor from New England into the Middle Atlantic states. 

Another factor with Irene’s slow movement is that for the next 12-24 hours areas from the Middle Atlantic into the western end of the Long Island sound will be the favored quadrant for sustained, surging water flow.  High tide is already above normal this weekend and storm surge can as much as 4 to 8 feet above ground level in the hurricane warning area North from Virginia to Cape Cod.  The mouth of Chesapeake Bay already has a storm surge of about 4 ft. 

Hurricane Irene’s winds increase drastically with height.  As Irene goes past the Delmar peninsula and approaches larger metropolitan areas, high-rise buildings will experience considerably stronger wind speeds than those at the surface.

As Irene moves into central New England early Sunday afternoon she will quickly diminish to a tropical storm then become absorbed into the westerlys by across eastern Quebec late Monday afternoon.

Baron Forecast Team

Curtis Brideau